The P.A.V.E. Framework
Shifting from reactive firefighting to proactive positioning
Chris Marr is a brilliant coach, content creator, and marketer.
I first met Chris, probably 5-6 years ago now, when I joined his Content Marketing Academy.
To this day, CMA was my all-time favorite community to be a part of. Virtually every other member was from Great Britain, but I felt closer to many of them than people in my home time “across the pond.”
A few months ago Chris, and some peers, launched The Question First Group, along with their Pathfinder System. Part of the system is a concept that Chris calls “Vanguarding.” I learned about it through a LinkedIn post by Chris. Check it out here, and be sure to follow Chris, his work is a great read.
Chris defines “Vanguarding” as getting “ahead of problems before they become problems. Anticipate where the friction is going to come from before it bites you.”
As any good piece of content should, his post got me thinking about the concept and how it plays in my strategic role working with growth-stage companies.
I started jotting down some ideas and before I knew it I had the makings of what could be a helpful framework.
I call it the P.A.V.E Framework.
The P.A.V.E. Framework
1. Perceptual Scanning (The Radar)
Vanguarding begins with widening the lens of observation. Most corporate roles focus on lagging indicators (quarterly revenue); vanguarding focuses on leading indicators.
External Signals: Monitor regulatory shifts, “fringe” competitor patents, and changes in consumer sentiment on niche platforms.
One way I accomplish this is through the use of my Daily News agent. Every workday, at 8am, it feeds me information and news about a variety of topics ranging from economic news to competitor updates and more. To accomplish this, I use a scheduled task in Gemini. But, I’m sure you can use other LLMs.
Internal Friction: Identify recurring “minor” bottlenecks in the sales cycle or product development that suggest a coming scalability wall.
Bottlenecks in the sales cycle or product development are easy to see if you are monitoring the data. They usually show up in longer close ratios and slower enhancement release velocities. Internal friction is also visible in seemingly odd places. Like meeting creep or massive email chains that go on and on that should have turned into a quick decision meeting.
The “Pre-Mortem” Habit: Regularly ask, “If we fail 18 months from now, what was the most likely cause?”
Pre-mortems are one of my favorite exercises, that few professional I know complete. Even across massive projects, the pre-mortems I have done have almost always been right about the failure points.
2. Anticipatory Modeling (The Simulation)
Once a signal is identified, you need to determine its potential velocity and impact.
Scenario Branching: Map out three versions of the future (Aggressive, Moderate, Stagnant) based on the signal.
I recommend a magnitude of impact between each version. For example, an Aggressive scenario is 10x the impact of a Moderate one which is 2x that of a Stagnant version.
Cross-Functional Impact Mapping: If a new trend emerges, don’t just ask how it affects one work group. Ask how it affects Legal, Talent Acquisition, and Customer Support.
3. Validation & Stress Testing (The Probe)
Vanguarding isn’t about guessing; it’s about low-cost validation. Before a problem manifests, “stress test” the current strategy against the anticipated change.
Micro-Experiments: Launch small, internal pilots to see how the organization reacts to a theoretical change in process.
I’ve structured most of the teams I led into “pods.” Micro-experiments can be really easily tested in a singular pod to limit the impact to the entire organization.
Red Teaming: Assign a small group to act as a competitor or a “disruptive force” to find the holes in your current multi-year plan.
No one likes hearing their “baby is ugly.” It can be especially tough to hear from peers. But, all things equal, its better for internal teams to “tenth man” your project than having your customers do it live and in public.
4. Executive Pre-Conditioning (The Buy-In)
The hardest part of vanguarding is solving a problem no one else sees yet. This requires “socializing” the risk before it becomes a crisis.
Information Drip: Share “insight memos” regularly that highlight emerging trends, so leadership isn’t blindsided when you eventually propose a pivot.
This is how I got shifted back to the Strategy team instead of leading Product teams. For about a year I was sending our VP of Strategy memos about trends I was seeing in our market. One particular memo was spot on in its analysis, about an emerging competitor that most were ignoring. I also, recently, sent a GTM Audit that I performed to our CEO. Not only do these memos help the company, they can also be great ways to show key stakeholders your value and how you think.
Option Framing: Present solutions as “insurance” rather than “pivots.” It is much easier for a board to approve a small hedge today than a massive recovery fund tomorrow.
“Vanguarding” is the ultimate form of hedging. It’s the military equivalent of sending out the reconnaissance scouts to see what the enemy is doing so you can either take advantage of their unpreparedness or go around them.
When you look at options, consider both imminent responses and longer term plays based on what you are seeing.
What I developed, above, was largely focused around my current industry, fintech.
But, I think it holds water in others as well.
An Example of the P.A.V.E. Framework
Below is how a dental practice (pretty far from fintech) could apply the P.A.V.E. Framework.
Applying the P.A.V.E. Framework to a dental practice shifts the management style from “reactive tooth-fixing” to “proactive health-tech leadership.” In an industry often bogged down by high overhead and insurance dependencies, this framework acts as a strategic hedge against disruption.
1. Perceptual Scanning (The Radar)
Widening the lens to catch signals before they impact the patient chair.
External Signals: Don’t just watch local dental competitors. Monitor the rise of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) orthodontics or AI-driven diagnostic software. Use a daily news filter for changes in reimbursement policies from major insurers (e.g., Delta Dental) or shifts in “Biohacking” trends on social media that might drive demand for holistic dentistry.
Internal Friction: Watch for “The 15-Minute Creep.” If hygienists are consistently running 5–10 minutes over, it’s not just a busy day; it’s a leading indicator of a scalability wall or looming staff burnout. Track “No-Show” patterns—if they spike in a specific demographic, it may signal a shift in local economic sentiment.
The Pre-Mortem: Once a quarter, the lead dentist and office manager should ask: “It’s 2028 and our patient volume has dropped 40%. Why?” (Likely answers: A new corporate DSO opened down the street with better tech, or we failed to adopt subscription-based memberships when insurance became untenable).
2. Anticipatory Modeling (The Simulation)
Mapping the impact of a signal on the practice’s ecosystem.
Scenario Branching: If a new AI tool for detecting cavities in X-rays emerges:
Stagnant: We ignore it; patients eventually feel our tech is “dated.”
Moderate: We adopt it for diagnostics; trust increases, and case acceptance rises by 15%.
Aggressive: We build our entire marketing around “AI-Verified Precision,” creating a 3x surge in new patient leads.
Cross-Functional Impact: If you decide to move to a Fee-for-Service (FFS) model:
Front Desk: Needs new scripts to handle insurance objections.
Clinical: Needs to increase “perceived value” through better patient experience.
Marketing: Must pivot from “We take your insurance” to “We provide elite results.”
3. Validation & Stress Testing (The Probe)
Low-cost testing to verify if a shift is necessary.
Micro-Experiments: Before overhauling your entire scheduling system, run a “Friday-Only Subscription Pilot.” Offer a small group of uninsured patients a monthly membership for cleanings and see if it stabilizes cash flow without disrupting the rest of the week.
Red Teaming: Have your most junior staff member or a “secret shopper” friend go through your intake process. Ask them to find every reason not to book a follow-up. Let them “tenth man” your patient experience to find the holes in your retention plan before they become revenue leaks.
4. Executive Pre-Conditioning (The Buy-In)
Socializing the risk to staff and partners before it becomes a crisis.
Information Drip: If you see a trend toward Teledentistry, don’t announce a $50k investment on Monday morning. Start by sharing a monthly “Trend Memo” with your partners or senior associates about how remote consultations are reducing chair-time waste. By the time you propose the pivot, they already see the logic.
Option Framing: Present the purchase of a 3D intraoral scanner not as a “luxury upgrade,” but as “Insurance against lab delays.” Frame it as a hedge: “By spending $X now on in-house printing, we hedge against the 15% increase in external lab fees and shipping delays we’ve seen this year.”
Implementation Example: The “Subscription Shift”
The Problem: Insurance reimbursements are shrinking, and the practice is working harder for less profit.
Scan: Notice the “Internal Friction” of the billing team spending 40% of their time fighting claims.
Model: Simulate a 20% loss of insurance-only patients vs. the higher margins of a private membership plan.
Probe: Run a 30-day “In-House Plan” test for the next 50 patients who call without insurance.
Pre-Condition: Share the success data from the test with the partners, framing the full rollout as a “revenue hedge” against future insurance cuts.
Wrapping Up
To be transparent, I haven’t worked with Chris lately, or The Question First Group. So, I don’t know how close the P.A.V.E. Framework aligns with their Pathfinder System.
Regardless, the idea of “Vanguarding” has really stuck with me. Because its a perfect term for visualizing the role that a Strategist needs to play for a business.
Go show Chris some love of the socials, and tell him JP sent you.